Bans on tobacco consumption
Philip Morris International (PMI), producer of Marlboro brand, have been asked to analyse the expected impact of
display bans on tobacco consumption.
Display bans are regulations that prohibit the visual display of tobacco products within
the point of sale. They are the most restrictive of all point-of-sale regulations, which
include limitations on height and visibility of displays, prohibition of self-service displays,
and restrictions on logos, banners, and window posters.
Display bans are rare. Only two countries in Europe have introduced display bans
Iceland in August 200110 and Ireland in 2009.11 All Canadian provinces, except one, and
two Australian states have also introduced point of sale display bans.12
In this report I examine the data on the impact of the Icelandic display ban on smoking
prevalence amongst the Icelandic population.
In Iceland, as in most Western countries, smoking prevalence has been declining since
at least the mid 1980s. The percentage of individuals aged 15 to 79 years who smoked
declined from 33% in 1987 to 19% in 2007. Likewise, the percentage of individuals aged
15 to 24 years who smoked fell from 28% in 1989 to 19% in 2007.13
The question I examine here is to what extent this decline in smoking prevalence was
caused by the display ban. This is not straightforward because smoking prevalence can
be affected by many different factors in addition to a display ban, such as other
regulations, social trends and changes in the price of cigarettes.
It is clear that, since the decline in smoking prevalence pre-dates the introduction of a
display ban, it cannot be wholly explained by it. In addition, in Iceland, the display ban
was preceded by several other tobacco control measures, such as an advertising ban on
all media and the introduction of mandatory health warnings in 1985, a ban on smoking
in public areas in 1999 and a brand sharing prohibition in 2002.14 Those interventions
may have continued to affect smoking prevalence after August 2001. In addition,
cigarette prices in Iceland have been continuously increasing since the mid 1980s, both
in absolute and relative terms. The increase in tobacco prices is likely to have had a
negative impact on smoking prevalence.
For these reasons a simple comparison of the smoking rate before and after the
implementation of the display ban is likely to exaggerate its impact. To estimate the
impact of display bans on smoking rates accurately, I need to take into account the
impact of cigarette prices and other tobacco measures on smoking prevalence. This is
what I have done using standard statistical techniques.